Why Some African leaders are smiling at the storm in North Africa

It’s been more than a month since protests that began in the Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid spread across North Africa and the Middle East. The protests in Tunisia were sparked by the action Mohamed Bouazizi, a 26 year old street vendor who on December 17, 2010 set himself on fire in front of the municipal building protesting his ill-treatment by local police who confiscated his merchandise.

By the time Bouazizi died on January 4, 2011, protests had gripped Tunisia, many Tunisians poured in the streets to challenge the regime of -President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. Ben Ali was later forced to flee to Saudi Arabia, ending his 23 year old rule.

The Tunisian revolution, entirely engineered from within, spread ripples to the rest of the Arab world and protests have been going on ever since. Africans have largely followed the protests in Tunisia, Egypt, Algeria, Yemen and Sudan through different media. In Uganda where local TV stations air direct feeds from Al Jazeera and other international networks, many people especially in the capital have watched in disbelief. They have hardly seen determined people standing up to a regime without the help of a gun.

Many Ugandans in the social networks have facebook status and tweets warning or wishing the same could happen in Uganda. I have refused to be optimistic about the events in North Africa. However a good look at Zimbabwe, Angola, Cameroon, Congo-Brazzaville to Uganda  you would understand the excitement.

The first post I made when Ben Ali was ousted by Tunisians was “the African club of dictators has lost a member and they will be doing some rethinking.” May be I should have been more specific on which leaders. So far only Sudan’s Omar al Bashir, Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak, Algeria’s Abdelaziz Bouteflika and to some extent, the self-baptised Africa’s king of Kings, Muammar Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi are feeling the quakes and tremors.

At  the African Union summit  in Addis Ababa, Tunisia was missing on the agenda but the AU president hailed the maturity of Tunisian people. The summit largely dwelt on the Ivory Coast election row where they are yet to reach an agreement.

The protests in North Africa have been largely around unemployment rate, corruption, poor living conditions and curtailing of freedoms of masses by the regimes. A look at the statistics tells you a story that would trick most of Africa into thinking they too could have a shot at bringing down their own dictators.

Almost two thirds of Egypt’s population has been born since President Hosni Mubarak came to power. Unemployment rate is North Africa has been high as their leaders live a royalty life. Corruption has been so rampant that the middle class in these countries never saw the reason why they paid taxes.  The living conditions in these countries for most of the population were terrible.  Only one percent of rural people in Tunisia have access to clean water and unemployment was at 14.2 percent as of 2009.

Compare the situation in these countries to Uganda you will find a lot of similarities.

About 77 per cent of Uganda’s population is youth. According to a 2008 World Bank report, Uganda has the highest youth unemployment rate and the youngest population in the world.

The African Development Indicators [ADI] report 2008/2009, showed youth have borne the burden of unemployment with the rate at 83 percent.

Corruption has been well documented and a few examples including the siphoning of the Global Fund money meant for HIV and Malaria interventions. More than $1.6 million was embezzled and misappropriated and we still can’t really point out to any recovery more than 3 years down the road. One of the ministers that was implicated in this corruption scandal once told me, on a flight to London, that the “President knew the where the global fund money went.” And later testimonies showed some of it ended up supporting the referendum in 2005.

This scandal that led to Uganda to be temporarily suspended from benefiting from the Fund did not cause much outrage and the ministers who were in charge are walking free in our streets. Capt. Mike Mukula, the junior health minister at the time has actually returned to campaign for a parliamentary post with a cynical slogan “We want you back” in Soroti Eastern Uganda.

There’s been evidence that a lots of funds meant for the hosting of 2007 the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting went missing. President Museveni ordered for arrests but we haven’t seen any big officials brought to book.

Just this month, members of parliament woke up and found 20 million shillings wired to their accounts for monitoring NAADs programs (an agricultural program that has largely benefits those who support the regime). President Museveni said that MPs needed this money ironically at a time of elections and the Ministry of Finance has come out to say the government is broke and will not easily fund certain sectors. The media continues the campaign  calling this a bribe and some opposition MPs have gone ahead to return the money to Parliament.

Talk of standard of living, Uganda having worse development indicators than the North African countries. Most Ugandans rely on out of pocket expenditure for their health, public health services are very hard to access and even when you get to hospitals there are no drugs. Soroti, a Regional Referral Hospital has only three maternity beds, it serves a population of over 20,000. The Universal primary education enrolled pupils and in the end we have produced half-baked primary education drop outs across the country with girls being affected most.

We cannot forget that President Museveni has been in power for now 25 years and he’s seeking re-election to step in the shoes of Mubarak.

This kind of comparison would one understand why some educated youthful Ugandans can have faith that la revolución will spread farther south of the Nile. This is not a wild expectation but looking on the side you would know well why Ugandans are not about to stand to President Museveni and his regime.

North African countries have a high literacy level over 70 percent and there are more urban dwellers in the north than in most of sub-Saharan Africa with a more exceptions. Most people who live in urban areas in Uganda for instance are more aware of the working of the state and they generally don’t vote President Museveni. So urbanization has a huge impact on how citizens relate to government and urban dwellers in Africa generally expect more from government.

Food prices have been a big factor in North Africa but we have not seen food prices threatening the survival of 80 percent of most Ugandans who live in the rural areas. Uganda is a fertile country and most people eat from their gardens. I grew up in a rural area and for me government means a few things. They do not relate hunger to government failures or lack of policies.  In the last twenty five years President Museveni has capitalized on this and made sleep (‘peace’) as the sole basic need Ugandans can demand for.

And like Ibrahim Sharqieh, the Deputy Director, Brookings Doha Center said, “the Tunisian model demonstrates, revolutions do not happen overnight.”

Many Ugandans especially the old have been psyched about the past of the country. They live in eternal fear that Museveni alone can guarantee a peaceful Uganda and he reinforces this daily with talk of when he came in 1986 and we –shall- deal- with –talk for every problem the country faces is from saboteurs.

Sharqieh further says “They (revolutions) require an accumulation of events before the environment ripens… They require momentum. Tunisians today recognize how the 1984 “bread revolution” has impacted their current uprising, as well as the 1988 Algerian uprising that collapsed the country’s single party system and introduced democratic reforms. Egyptians likewise recognize the significance of the April 6 price and wages demonstrations in 2008 and food demonstrations in 2007.”

Borrowing from Sharqieh’s analysis of theTunisian model, “an impoverished, educated people can more effectively organize violent protests and disrupt stability” than our largely uneducated psyched population.

Most youth in Uganda are also engulfed in the craze to acquire quick free money just like their fathers in power. They have not seen what effective institutions mean and the struggle to snatch what you can has not left us behind. There’s a lot of money being distributed now across the country as we near the voting day on February 18th. And the youth who could have made a difference are part of this crowd which sells their vote. I always ask, why should I sell my future to men who are the evening of their lives?  Most youth haven’t had time to stop and ask that question and reflect while others stay away from voting and engaging in any political thinking this guarantees their survival.

And also the heavy reliance on donor money doesn’t make an ordinary African question his government. Someone once told me “abo barya esente zabazungu gwe abifaakoki?” meaning they are eating white people’s money why do you care? So Africans still see funds as either government property or from a token to their government from western countries.

Also there was unity among the people across divides of religion and class, that division is still here in form of looking at everyone’s region and tribe.

Lastly the revolutions going in North Africa have been helped by the use of new media which has had a well reception in the whole of the Arab region in the last decade. In the rest of Africa, many youth have not seen a computer and while telephones have increased the participation of youth in freedom of expression, the youth can’t easily maneuver when government puts a crackdown. And those on social networks are not yet using them for the cases that affect their daily lives. In 2006, the government jammed radio stations which were airing election results and people had to rely solely on the Electoral Commission (EC) tally center. The EC, which has been ruled incompetent by the highest court in the land, to be the only source of information Ugandan’s democracy remains at the mercy of a few men.

Most people in Uganda generally are in two categories those that fear the regime and those that fear life after the regime. Those in fear are aware that they will be crashed because we have seen heavy military equipment (one usually saved for combat) in the streets of Kampala when the youth have come out to demonstrate in the past. Those who fear the life after can’t start imagining the scenario.

This happens in many other African countries where rulers have given themselves more years and abrogated constitutions to leave nations with a chance of having a life president. So for now I remain skeptical of my country seeing any of what’s on TV and I hope that these revolutions bring meaningful changes to these countries. That no one will hijack a peoples struggle just like it happened in Iran decades ago.

19 thoughts on “Why Some African leaders are smiling at the storm in North Africa

  1. Rosebell, Ugandans are way too disorganized and that puts a wide smile on Mu7’s wrinkled face. The people in the central region are educating the local Baganda that they are as good as not part of the rest of the country. They see the other tribes as intruders meaning that we the non Baganda are not in our country tuli Bagwira. Secondly the poverty, there is no way a hungry man will be given 2000 Uganda shillings and they engage themselves in an uprising. Ugandans are not tired yet.

  2. really good post, Rosebell

    i’ll have to make more regular visits here . i wonder if sub-Saharan Africans see it as too far away to emulate…?

    i’m very sceptical about the depth of changes that will follow now in Tunisia, or Egypt – better regime change than has been accomplished in Iraq, i feel certain.

    but it IS inspiring that unarmed people have gone out boldly against confirmed violent regimes, and stood up to the rounds of repression, not to mention state-sponsored looting and so on, and pushed long enough that one government has fallen, and another finds itself untenable.

    what does it take to make a sub-Saharan government’s position untenable? is the flavour of the south coup d’état or nothing?

  3. Rosebell, sometimes I feel too much pain in my heart because of what is going on in my country Uganda. True Uganda is a walking bomb now that could go off any time. lots of things have happened and people have kept quite but this does not mean they are stupid! what has happened in Tunisia and Egypt demonstrates what people especially young people are capable of when they are pushed to the edge. Our country needs serious deliverance

  4. very good article Rosebell,You just said it all.
    what I really like is the ending because its Fear that controls our lives sometimes, Im afraid of whats gonna happen next in Egypt but i do believe that this is no turning point, people are fed up with this regime and they just hit the bottom so for sure they are on the right track.
    In Africa, hope people will rise up soon, it realy breaks our hearts to see that africans can’t get any benefit of their rich content, so its just a matter of time

  5. The slight difference between Tunisia and now Egypt is that in both countries the army is professional. Their mandate is to defend the country from external hostilities. The cops are supposed to take care of internal trouble. So the Tunisians and Egyptians are not scarred that the army will turn against them.
    In Uganda it’s a completely different story. The army is not professional and is zipped up in M7’s pockets. The top brass are all cohorts of the regime and benefit from looting the country. So start a march and however peaceful it is, the army will turn up (usually in disguise) and shred it apart using whatever means necessary, including live ammo. So rather than go die on the streets for a regime who’s committment to the people is nil, just stay home and do your thing for the sake of your kids.
    Interestingly the army rank and file are broke and get a really raw deal from the institution, including those deployed in high-visibility missions like Somalia. If in doubt, ask those who got injured in the assignment about how committed the institution is towards their recovery and in cases where they can no longer work, in providing continued fiscal support. In fact to them you’d rather die so that their obligation ends at the funeral.

    1. Timothy, great point there on the army’s role, composition and professionalism. However on Ugandans staying home for the sake of their children, I don’t know how long we can do this. I just seen a report of 400,000 graduates produced every year not even a tenth get employed. Most of them still depend on their poor parents so I think Uganda’s time for more than stayin home will be in the coming years.

  6. I want to thank you for this article. It is so refreshingly informative, well researched, presented and targeted. I know it seems like a wasted effort to hope for effective change in a nation crippled with illiteracy, however you have managed to reach me, way out in the States.

    I want to believe that if you can reach me, then you can and will reach thousands more all around the world and yes, even in Uganda. What we need most of all is faith in ourselves as human beings above all else…faith in our ability to overcome fear, poverty, tyranny, cultural divide and defeatism.

    We need to believe that even without the tools of the trade (wealth, intellectual power, technological advancement), that have made other countries succeed in their strife for democracy, we as Ugandans can still find a way through human decency and responsibilty for echother to make ourselves heard.

    Articles like this one and several others are a very good way to start…all facts and no flush…thank you and keep up the good work:-).

    Here’s a question though: Getting back to your title ‘Why some Afrrican Leaders are smiling at the storm in North Africa’, you never did explain why then they would be smiling..is it at the lack of our ability to help ourselves or our situations? or rather the fall of their peers in which case would they rather not grimace at the possibility of that reality in their own futures?

    Funny, I recently read somewhere that 43% of China’s population was under29 years old and I remember thinking, what do they do to their old? Guess that bug’s come to bite the Ugandan in me now huh? 77% is a sad statistic though and I’d wager the majority of our adult losses are due to the 70’s-80’s wars and ofcourse, HIV/AIDS. How sad it all is…

    1. Thanks so much for your feedback. What I meant by the title is that so far they still have us under their belt they have divided the countries according to tribal lines, religious lines. in the case of Uganda the leaders have made us believe we have only ones with a vision that if we dont choose them Uganda will return to the old turbulent days. In a way they are right because they have now allowed enough political space over decades. it was only 10 yrs a go that President Museveni got someone who could come up and challenge him but we still have a long way to go for Ugandans to choose not to sell their vote and think of their future.

  7. Can you add the option to e-mail postings to friends? It wouldn’t hurt to get more social media on your side. There are alot of free social media extensions out there that would plug in a module on your blog with quicklinks, to enable readers to pass your articles onto a wider audience. I am a website developer and work alot with joomla but happen to know that most of this open source programming will also work for Drupal and WordPress sites. 🙂

  8. This is a very detailed and well-articulated post. I agree with your reasons why we won’t see the same reaction here in Uganda as they have seen in North Africa. There are also the many divisions between people in Uganda. There were 2 million people in Tahrir Square. Could 2 million Ugandans unify around a single goal?

  9. This is it. Once said by the late Micheal jackson (Pop King). Rose, you have done a similar analysis of our leaders.

    But watch it, the people are always the victors no matter what, because this is all about greed and self degradation in the eyes of your own kinsmen.

    Good work and keep up the pace.

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